Sampling physical systems with rough energy landscapes is hindered by rare events and metastable trapping. While Boltzmann generators already offer a solution, their reliance on the reverse Kullback--Leibler divergence frequently induces catastrophic mode collapse, missing specific modes in multi-modal distributions. Here, we introduce the Jeffreys Flow, a robust generative framework that mitigates this failure by distilling empirical sampling data from Parallel Tempering trajectories using the symmetric Jeffreys divergence. This formulation effectively balances local target-seeking precision with global modes coverage. We show that minimizing Jeffreys divergence suppresses mode collapse and structurally corrects inherent inaccuracies via distillation of the empirical reference data. We demonstrate the framework's scalability and accuracy on highly non-convex multidimensional benchmarks, including the systematic correction of stochastic gradient biases in Replica Exchange Stochastic Gradient Langevin Dynamics and the massive acceleration of exact importance sampling in Path Integral Monte Carlo for quantum thermal states.

We quantify the efficiency of temporal difference (TD) learning over the direct, or Monte Carlo (MC), estimator for policy evaluation in reinforcement learning, with an emphasis on estimation of quantities related to rare events. Policy evaluation is complicated in the rare event setting by the long timescale of the event and by the need for \emph{relative accuracy} in estimates of very small values. Specifically, we focus on least-squares TD (LSTD) prediction for finite state Markov chains, and show that LSTD can achieve relative accuracy far more efficiently than MC. We prove a central limit theorem for the LSTD estimator and upper bound the \emph{relative asymptotic variance} by simple quantities characterizing the connectivity of states relative to the transition probabilities between them. Using this bound, we show that, even when both the timescale of the rare event and the relative accuracy of the MC estimator are exponentially large in the number of states, LSTD maintains a fixed level of relative accuracy with a total number of observed transitions of the Markov chain that is only \emph{polynomially} large in the number of states.

This paper studies the use of a machine learning-based estimator as a control variate for mitigating the variance of Monte Carlo sampling. Specifically, we seek to uncover the key factors that influence the efficiency of control variates in reducing variance. We examine a prototype estimation problem that involves simulating the moments of a Sobolev function based on observations obtained from (random) quadrature nodes. Firstly, we establish an information-theoretic lower bound for the problem. We then study a specific quadrature rule that employs a nonparametric regression-adjusted control variate to reduce the variance of the Monte Carlo simulation. We demonstrate that this kind of quadrature rule can improve the Monte Carlo rate and achieve the minimax optimal rate under a sufficient smoothness assumption. Due to the Sobolev Embedding Theorem, the sufficient smoothness assumption eliminates the existence of rare and extreme events. Finally, we show that, in the presence of rare and extreme events, a truncated version of the Monte Carlo algorithm can achieve the minimax optimal rate while the control variate cannot improve the convergence rate.

Rare events such as financial crashes, climate extremes, and biological anomalies are notoriously difficult to model due to their scarcity and heavy-tailed distributions. Classical deep generative models often struggle to capture these rare occurrences, either collapsing low-probability modes or producing poorly calibrated uncertainty estimates. In this work, we propose the Quantum-Enhanced Generative Model (QEGM), a hybrid classical-quantum framework that integrates deep latent-variable models with variational quantum circuits. The framework introduces two key innovations: (1) a hybrid loss function that jointly optimizes reconstruction fidelity and tail-aware likelihood, and (2) quantum randomness-driven noise injection to enhance sample diversity and mitigate mode collapse. Training proceeds via a hybrid loop where classical parameters are updated through backpropagation while quantum parameters are optimized using parameter-shift gradients. We evaluate QEGM on synthetic Gaussian mixtures and real-world datasets spanning finance, climate, and protein structure. Results demonstrate that QEGM reduces tail KL divergence by up to 50 percent compared to state-of-the-art baselines (GAN, VAE, Diffusion), while improving rare-event recall and coverage calibration. These findings highlight the potential of QEGM as a principled approach for rare-event prediction, offering robustness beyond what is achievable with purely classical methods.

The objective of this work is to develop a method for detecting rare gamma quanta against the background of charged particles in the fluxes from sources in the Universe with the help of the deep learning and normalizing flows based method designed for anomaly detection. It is shown that the suggested method has a potential for the gamma detection. The method was tested on model data from the TAIGA-IACT experiment. The obtained quantitative performance indicators are still inferior to other approaches, and therefore possible ways to improve the implementation of the method are proposed.

Abstract--Extreme events frequently occur in real-world time series and often carry significant practical implications. In domains such as climate and healthcare, these events, such as floods, heatwaves, or acute medical episodes, can lead to serious consequences. Accurate forecasting of such events is therefore of substantial importance. Most existing time series forecasting models are optimized for overall performance within the prediction window, but often struggle to accurately predict extreme events, such as high temperatures or heart rate spikes. The main challenges are data imbalance and the neglect of valuable information contained in intermediate events that precede extreme events. In this paper, we propose xTime, a novel framework for extreme event forecasting in time series. In addition, we introduce a mixture of experts (MoE) mechanism that dynamically selects and fuses outputs from expert models across different rarity levels, which further improves the forecasting performance for extreme events. Experiments on multiple datasets show that xTime achieves consistent improvements, with forecasting accuracy on extreme events improving from 3% to 78%. Time series forecasting plays a fundamental role across a broad spectrum of critical applications, such as stock market analysis, weather and climate modeling, and electricity demand prediction.

Identifying recurring patterns and rare events in large-scale signals is a fundamental challenge in fields such as astronomy, physical simulations, and biomedical science. Convolutional Dictionary Learning (CDL) offers a powerful framework for modeling local structures in signals, but its use for detecting rare or anomalous events remains largely unexplored. In particular, CDL faces two key challenges in this setting: high computational cost and sensitivity to artifacts and outliers. In this paper, we introduce RoseCDL, a scalable and robust CDL algorithm designed for unsupervised rare event detection in long signals. RoseCDL combines stochastic windowing for efficient training on large datasets with inline outlier detection to enhance robustness and isolate anomalous patterns. This reframes CDL as a practical tool for event discovery and characterization in real-world signals, extending its role beyond traditional tasks like compression or denoising.

Scarcity of labeled data, especially for rare events, hinders training effective machine learning models. This paper proposes SYNAPSE-G (Synthetic Augmentation for Positive Sampling via Expansion on Graphs), a novel pipeline leveraging Large Language Models (LLMs) to generate synthetic training data for rare event classification, addressing the cold-start problem. This synthetic data serve as seeds for semi-supervised label propagation on a similarity graph constructed between the seeds and a large unlabeled dataset. This identifies candidate positive examples, subsequently labeled by an oracle (human or LLM). The expanded dataset then trains/fine-tunes a classifier. We theoretically analyze how the quality (validity and diversity) of the synthetic data impacts the precision and recall of our method. Experiments on the imbalanced SST2 and MHS datasets demonstrate SYNAPSE-G's effectiveness in finding positive labels, outperforming baselines including nearest neighbor search.